(It's never) the year of the Cats

by OROTON

THIS column is based on the simple premise well known to all Geelong fans: each victory brings us one step closer to ignominious failure.

At the start of the season bookmakers work overtime to frame the odds for the upcoming year. They will give you odds for the chance each team has of winning the AFL premiership. All 16 teams.

Theoretically it could be argued that all teams begin with a chance of taking out the pennant. You could start with Essendon at the shortest odds and work through to perennial duds such as Fremantle and St Kilda. I'm sure leading mathematicians would argue both of these teams have some chance, no matter how infinitesimal, of winning the last game of the season.

In reality, most teams have as much chance of winning the flag as I have of opening the batting for Australia. That is to say, no chance. I would list Geelong in this group of teams.

It's bold of me to challenge our learned scholars as my paltry mathematics training finished in year 11. I cannot claim a full grasp of permutations, combinations, chance or probability. However, I do know extra study would have been wasted developing theories on the possibility of Geelong being successful on the MCG on grand final day. Put simply, it ain't going to happen.

It was once Collingwood supporters who carried the burden that comes with losing several grand finals, (the ultimate failure being the 1970 grand final). They endured an epic tragedy to rival anything Shakespeare could depict. But after an average team of battlers managed to win in 1990 the Magpie army was released, and it was Geelong which assumed the role of the league's tragic failure.

A friend said to me a while ago "Geelong will never win the premiership," which in some ways is the ultimate nihilistic statement. And, defying logic, it suggests a knowledge of an unknowable future. However in some small way I guess it's comforting for my friend to have some certainty when facing eternity.

So, why maintain the rage. Why defend the indefensible? A team that has refined the not so gentle art of defeat. A team that specialises in capitulation and lack of resolve. Why not jump ship to Essendon or Carlton, teams that are assured premiership success once or twice a decade?

Why? This is the conundrum I intend to explore in this column.

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