Not pretty numbers for Cats

by NEIL BELFORD

ON any sort of analysis it is clear that Fremantle will win a flag before Geelong wins another one.

If you look at VFL/AFL history, the prospects for Geelong do not look good. The premiership years 1951, 1952, 1963, 2007 show an algebraic progression with a clear trend of decay. This means the best case for the next flag would be a step-linear function, which would compute to 45 years from the last, being in 2052. The worst case would be exponential decay where the next flag will be 121 years from the last being the year 2128. A brighter analysis would be to look at Geelong's history since the AFL was formed which shows they win premierships at best every 20 years, having them potentially in the frame again in 2027.

Given that Fremantle made a decision half way through the second quarter against Geelong in round six to tank for the rest of the season so as to get the last good draft picks in 2008 ahead of the new eastern seaboard start-ups who will be cleaning up picks one to five from 2009 to 2012, they should be in fine shape for a raft of premierships from 2010 to 2015.

15 May 2008

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