What fortune will favour the Hawks?

by RICK KANE

WHEN it comes to footy, I'm not a stats man by any stretch of the spreadsheet. I'm more your qualitative type. This is to say, I connect with the game through passion and the visceral. However, we do need stats, just as we need a bottle of wine to have a bottom. Just this week, I was wondering about the teams at the top of the ladder. Has there been another year when the three top sides had lost so few a games at this stage in the competition? I don't know, so I went looking.

hawks vs roos

Looking down at the Hawks and Roos at the MCG in round 14. Photo by Les Everett.

As is the nature of the Internet, I didn't find what I was looking for, but I did find out some other useful stuff. Follow this link allthestats to Ladder Predict. By guessing who will win (and by how much) for the next nine rounds it will tell you, based on your tips, what the ladder will look like. In fact, I have saved you the trouble.

By the end of round 22, there will be little change from the ladder as it is now. Oh, The Hawks WILL be on top. Followed by Geelong, Sydney, Bulldogs, Lions, Crows, Roos, and the Blues will make up the eight. Then it will be the Magpies. That's right, in my world they narrowly miss the finals. After that come the Tigers, Power, Dockers, Saints, Bombers, Eagles and the Demons will be wooden spooners. That was fun. For that to happen I tipped The Hawks to win their remaining nine games. But I'm not even convinced that they'll get over the Eagles this week.

Something seems a little off with the Hawks. Is it that the side still lacks maturity in how it plays as a team? Watching them play North Melbourne last week they seemed to lack leadership and the game plan was in disarray, so it may be that there is still some growing to do. Another theory holds that their win-loss ratio masks how good they are. There have only been three big wins of the 11 so far and the other wins have been by 20 points or less. Could it be that the effort just to get across the line (Port Adelaide, Melbourne and Adelaide recently) is draining energy from individuals and the team? I think so. And I'm not just talking about physical energy. You have to be as mentally fit to keep producing such a high standard. This, I think, is connected to the maturity of the side. People comment on Hodge's composure. A great team has more than one player with that sort of composure. When Hawthorn has played at its best this year, it is the fact that they have been cool in a crisis and handled the pressure. By doing so, they have produced a style of play that already other teams are trying to emulate. If they want to be great this has to be their modus operandi.

I believe they have it in them. Because there is another reason for why they appear to be slipping and I think this is every bit as important a point as what has already been mentioned. They are without five or six of their best players. This isn't just idle grumbles. Last Saturday, what was mostly missing from their game plan was a fast runner through the midfield, one Chance Bateman. Up until the week he strained a hamstring, this has been Bateman's best year. He has had career-high records in disposals, kicks, goals and tackles and all in different games! He is ranked first at Hawthorn this year in goal assists. Would he have made the difference on Saturday? I'm prepared to say maybe. But he isn't the only great player out at the moment.

Trent Croad and Simon Taylor are on the sidelines as well, effectively putting the Hawks without their centre half back and No. 1 ruckman, who, by the way, was averaging 17 hit-outs. Campbell, the No. 2 ruck is doing a great job but Hawthorn is a team that relies on a two-ruck approach. With Croad and Taylor out, the team is short of some much needed tall timber. Both players are among Hawthorn's top 10 for effective disposals and the one percenters. That the Hawks have continued to win games is all the more impressive, when you consider that they are without key personnel.

And then there is the midfield. A team's midfield is the engine room of the modern game and Hawthorn is no exception. In fact, the key reason for their success, beyond Buddy and the formidable forward line is the pace, depth and strength of its midfield. Hawthorn is without four of its A-Team midfield. I have already mentioned Chance. There is also, McGlynn, Crawford and Sewell to return to the side. Sewell and Crawf are ranked third and fourth, respectively, for disposals per game and Crawf has only played five games this year. Crawf is also one of the Hawks ten best in effective disposals. Sewell is in the top ten for goal assists, second for centre clearances and leads the tackle count.

These six players would be in Hawthorn's first 20 at any point this year. Most of them would be in any other team's top 20 as well. All in all, there are some heavy hitters missing from the team's line up. And each of them is well on the road to recovery. If they are back by the beginning of August, that sill gives the side a full month to run in a redoubtable team in preparation for September. Before we start writing off a side, that in the first 10 weeks set the competition alight, I think we should give them some time to bring their best back into the starting line up. Then let's see what happens.

With Croad back in the back line, Brown, Gilham, Guerra and Murphy will have stronger support. With Taylor rucking, the twin engines of he and Campbell will improve and increase the hit-outs and clearances. With the midfield bolstered by Sewell, Crawford and McGlynn, the ball will be even better controlled and more effectively moved down to Buddy and co. And who will be moving the ball into the forward line - not chance, but Chance. With their best players on the paddock, the Hawks are as threatening as any team going. And that ain't my passions speaking, that's the stats jack.

26 June 2008

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