September 09, 2009

And a premiership tip thrown in...

DO these stats tell a story? Below are stats re the last six teams left in the finals.
In the last 11 games of the regular season St Kilda and Collingwood had a winning ratio of 9/2. Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs ratio was 8/3. Brisbane was 7/3/1 (a draw with Essendon). Geelong's ratio was 7/4.
The total winning margin against loss margin for those 11 games was as follows:
St Kilda 266/7
Collingwood 434/69
Adelaide 437/80
Western Bulldogs 323/51
Brisbane 219/60
Geelong 147/98
Finally (and probably subjectively) here is a view of the same teams and their last four weeks, including the first finals round:
Adelaide 4/0 win loss ratio, 267 win margin total
Geelong 3/1, 59/14 win loss margin total
Bulldogs 3/1, 56/14 win loss margin total
Brisbane 3/1, 30/18
Collingwood 2/2, 134/50
St Kilda, 2/2, 73/7
(Please note, margins may be out by a small number, I'm doing this while trying to do other things)
Of the last four games, Bulldogs' three wins were all against other top eight sides; Adelaide had two wins against top eight sides, St Kilda, Geelong and Brisbane had one win against a top eight side and Collingwood hasn't won against a top eight side in the last four weeks.
As they say, September is another country but some small inferences can be read into these stats.
In the last few weeks Brisbane has struggled, their win margin reflects this. Between week 12 and week 20, their win margin was about 190 from five wins. In the last couple of weeks they have won by an average of 10 points.
Collingwood is all over the place. They have had an excellent second half of the season, with big winning margins. Slippage in the last couple of weeks is not the best preparation for the run home.
The Bulldogs should be given more respect and greater due. Last week's loss was either an indication that they are once again middle of the field or was a slip up. I will give them the benefit of the doubt and suggest that their form overall is good enough to bounce back next week and into the preliminary final.
Geelong's form, on paper, is not convincing. They come in with the least respectable win loss ratio and margin of the six sides during the second half of the year. Injuries have played a part in their form. Can they run themselves into the form required over the next few weeks? Of the six sides competing, they are the one that needed the week's break (courtesy of their win against the Bulldogs) the most. In the last quarter against the Dogs they had slowed to a shuffle. I can't see them winning three in a row, based on recent form.
Make no mistake, St Kilda's form on paper and on the field is head and shoulders above the rest. Their two losses late in the season can easily be considered anomalies. The preliminary final they will likely play against the Bulldog should be one of the highlights of the year. Between the Saints and the Dogs they have won two premierships in 100 years. Who will be the hungriest?
Adelaide's record is impressive. The win-loss ratio, the total win margin and current form added together suggest that Adelaide is in top flight at exactly the right time of the year.
Reading the tea leaves of these stats I predict a St Kilda vs Adelaide grand final. The way Andrew Mcleod is playing he could well be the difference between the two sides. Wouldn't that be a great bookend to a fantastic career!
Adelaide, by 35 points.

• Andrew McLeod in action against Collingwood at Football Park in round 19. Photo Slattery Media Group.

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